DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HunterZ
Hoodwink
Mjz · 11 games
Snapfire
Mjz · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 9 games
Jakirosignature
Prada · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 6 games
Marcisignature
Lumière · 6 games
Bristleback
Lumière · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 5 games
Roar Gaming
Snapfiresignature
CatYou · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 9 games
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 8 games
Shadow Demonsignature
CatYou · 8 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Earthshakeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
566 picks · 286 bans
Disruptor
506 picks · 509 bans
Puck
378 picks · 1040 bans
Pugna
338 picks · 387 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 167 bans
Warlock
333 picks · 154 bans
Mars
332 picks · 562 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:36
HunterZ 41%Roar Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistLumière
Templar AssassinUlu
BristlebackVitaly
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
SnapfireMjz
Night Stalker生死
OraclePrada
JakiroRedPanda
35% · 24 games
Skywrath MageCatYou
Game 2prediction correct23:42
HunterZ 38%Roar Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 37:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainLumière
GyrocopterUlu
SlardarVitaly
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
SnapfireMjz
Pangolier生死
UndyingPrada
Skywrath MageCatYou
49% · 209 games
DisruptorRedPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 70%
Series resultRoar Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2