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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HunterZloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Roar Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HunterZ

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 11 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 10 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 9 games
89%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Prada · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 6 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Lumière · 6 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 5 games
60%

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
CatYou · 12 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
CatYou · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
566 picks · 286 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
506 picks · 509 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 1040 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
338 picks · 387 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 167 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
333 picks · 154 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 562 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
317 picks · 237 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:36
HunterZ 41%Roar Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistLumière
49% · 65 games45% · 152 games
Templar AssassinUlu
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackVitaly
57% · 298 games45% · 154 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireMjz
57% · 162 games40% · 67 games
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
Oracle
OraclePrada
54% · 26 games53% · 154 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
35% · 24 games
Skywrath MageCatYou
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct23:42
HunterZ 38%Roar Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 37:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLumière
46% · 226 games49% · 146 games
GyrocopterUlu
Gyrocopter
Slardar
SlardarVitaly
50% · 106 games54% · 171 game
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireMjz
55% · 265 games48% · 202 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingPrada
54% · 157 games35% · 26 games
Skywrath MageCatYou
Skywrath Mage
49% · 209 games
DisruptorRedPanda
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 70%
Series resultRoar Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2