FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 25 games
Snapfire
sayuw · 23 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 21 game
Tusk
mrls · 21 game
Disruptor
Xakoda · 20 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
Team Yandex
Warlock
Solo · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 9 games
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
Dark Willow
prblms · 7 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Noticed · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 7 games
Bane
prblms · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
483 picks · 250 bans
Disruptor
467 picks · 457 bans
Puck
357 picks · 962 bans
Pugna
326 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
305 picks · 150 bans
Earthshaker
292 picks · 477 bans
Batrider
291 picks · 630 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 223 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
Yellow Submarine 53%Team Yandex 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMirele
Shadow FiendWatson
Templar Assassinbottega
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Marslaise
AxeNoticed
Hoodwinksayuw
SilencerMalady
Naga SirenRodjER
Snapfireprblms
Game 2prediction correct32:21
Yellow Submarine 50%Team Yandex 50%
The model gave 50% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristlebackbottega
PudgeWatson
Abaddonlaise
BeastmasterNoticed
Storm SpiritMirele
Death ProphetChira JUNIOR
Hoodwinksayuw
SnapfireMalady
DisruptorRodjER
Alchemistprblms
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2