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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 35 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 30 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 26 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
48%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Pablo · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 21 game
67%

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 9 games
78%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kidaro · 8 games
63%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
xn丶e · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 6 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
327 picks · 308 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 800 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 754 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
276 picks · 308 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
275 picks · 137 bans
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 248 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 792 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:17
Zero Tenacity 44%Pipsqueak+4 56%
The model gave 56% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer423
52% · 139 games48% · 92 games
SvenNande
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracMirage
48% · 104 games53% · 96 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
51% · 67 games47% · 65 games
Void Spiritxn丶e
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
56% · 127 games53% · 161 game
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorJeezy
50% · 132 games42% · 155 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct20:32
Zero Tenacity 40%Pipsqueak+4 60%
The model gave 60% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
44% · 176 games53% · 100 games
LunaNande
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
49% · 145 games49% · 154 games
Queen of Painxn丶e
Queen of Pain
Rubick
RubickMirage
48% · 109 games51% · 95 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Phoenix
PhoenixJeezy
47% · 145 games61% · 139 games
Naga SirenKidaro
Naga Siren
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
41% · 141 game58% · 228 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 62%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2