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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hong shi zhang zuiwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 16 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%

Hong shi zhang zui

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 5 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
TK · 3 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 3 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
TK · 3 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 3 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 2 games
100%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
TK · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
305 picks · 762 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
295 picks · 275 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
269 picks · 173 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
264 picks · 290 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
262 picks · 712 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
257 picks · 245 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
255 picks · 725 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 593 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 75%
Hero pool strength63% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
Yakult Brothers 56%Hong shi zhang zui 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
50% · 225 games58% · 38 games
Troll Warlordlou
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightflyfly
52% · 156 games47% · 327 games
PangolierBEYOND
Pangolier
Lycan
Lycanzeal
51% · 83 games45% · 144 games
HoodwinkTK
Hoodwink
Slark
SlarkBoBoKa
51% · 38 games55% · 114 games
BaneUndyne_
Bane
Disruptor
DisruptorPoloson
45% · 121 game
Game 2prediction missed10:30
Yakult Brothers 56%Hong shi zhang zui 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEmo
50% · 128 games45% · 97 games
Lunalou
Luna
Sven
Svenflyfly
48% · 56 games57% · 78 games
LycanBEYOND
Lycan
Marci
Marcizeal
44% · 95 games48% · 156 games
SnapfireTK
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoBoKa
52% · 121 game50% · 154 games
DisruptorUndyne_
Disruptor
Bane
BanePoloson
56% · 85 games
Game 3prediction missed22:30
Yakult Brothers 56%Hong shi zhang zui 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordflyfly
59% · 36 games40% · 63 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Invoker
InvokerEmo
54% · 86 games49% · 111 games
LycanBEYOND
Lycan
Monkey King
Monkey Kingzeal
55% · 102 games49% · 134 games
SnapfireTK
Snapfire
Batrider
BatriderBoBoKa
49% · 170 games45% · 136 games
DisruptorUndyne_
Disruptor
Jakiro
JakiroPoloson
56% · 50 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 66%
Series resultHong shi zhang zui 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3