DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HSHong shi zhang zuiwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 21 game
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
Bane
Oli · 11 games
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
BoBoKa · 11 games
Hong shi zhang zui
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 5 games
Hoodwink
TK · 3 games
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 3 games
Snapfire
TK · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 3 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
TK · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
305 picks · 762 bans
Disruptor
295 picks · 275 bans
Shadow Shaman
269 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
264 picks · 290 bans
Dawnbreaker
262 picks · 712 bans
Tusk
257 picks · 245 bans
Marci
255 picks · 725 bans
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 593 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 75%
Hero pool strength63% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
Yakult Brothers 56%Hong shi zhang zui 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritEmo
Troll Warlordlou
Dragon Knightflyfly
PangolierBEYOND
Lycanzeal
HoodwinkTK
SlarkBoBoKa
BaneUndyne_
DisruptorPoloson
Game 2prediction missed10:30
Yakult Brothers 56%Hong shi zhang zui 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendEmo
Lunalou
Svenflyfly
LycanBEYOND
Marcizeal
SnapfireTK
HoodwinkBoBoKa
DisruptorUndyne_
BanePoloson
Game 3prediction missed22:30
Yakult Brothers 56%Hong shi zhang zui 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordflyfly
Weaverlou
InvokerEmo
LycanBEYOND
Monkey Kingzeal
SnapfireTK
BatriderBoBoKa
DisruptorUndyne_
JakiroPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 66%
Series resultHong shi zhang zui 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3