OG LATAM vs Flame — prediction DS2ЗК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

OG LATAMloss 0:2

series probability

84%16%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Flamewin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG LATAM

Tusk

Elmisho · 11 games

55%

Shadow Shaman

MoOz · 9 games

56%

Ringmaster

MoOz · 8 games

38%

Underlord

ILICH- · 8 games

25%

Dark Seeroften banned

ILICH- · 7 games

29%

Pangolieroften banned

ILICH- · 7 games

57%

Terrorbladeoften banned

K1 · 7 games

43%

Ursaoften banned

K1 · 7 games

43%

Flame

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

298 picks · 742 bans

51%

Disruptor

280 picks · 255 bans

48%

Shadow Shaman

273 picks · 173 bans

50%

Dawnbreaker

259 picks · 683 bans

49%

Pugna

257 picks · 275 bans

54%

Tusk

250 picks · 243 bans

46%

Marci

248 picks · 688 bans

55%

Nature's Prophet

247 picks · 572 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%

Hero pool strength55% Flame

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total84% OG LATAM

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed15:23

OG LATAM 70%Flame 30%

The model gave 70% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by Flame in 40:48.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo