DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG LATAM
Tusk
Elmisho · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
Underlord
ILICH- · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 7 games
Flame
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
298 picks · 742 bans
Disruptor
280 picks · 255 bans
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 683 bans
Pugna
257 picks · 275 bans
Tusk
250 picks · 243 bans
Marci
248 picks · 688 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Flame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% OG LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:23
OG LATAM 70%Flame 30%
The model gave 70% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by Flame in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightAlone
TerrorbladeArgius
LycanFCR
HuskarAdrx
Dragon KnightCostabile
LeshracS1RENM
HoodwinkGenek
PugnaPanda
Game 2prediction missed51:53
OG LATAM 69%Flame 31%
The model gave 69% on OG LATAM — the game was taken by Flame in 1:10:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerAlone
Storm SpiritS1RENM
TimbersawFCR
HuskarAdrx
SvenCostabile
DawnbreakerArgius
BatriderGenek
DisruptorPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteOG LATAM · 84%
Series resultFlame 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2