DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 14 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 14 games
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 13 games
HULIGANI
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 20 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 14 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 14 games
Warlock
Bb3px · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
288 picks · 700 bans
Shadow Shaman
278 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 230 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 651 bans
Tusk
248 picks · 252 bans
Marci
245 picks · 615 bans
Dark Willow
244 picks · 105 bans
Pugna
242 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:13
Nemiga Gaming 39%HULIGANI 61%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordbashka
Dragon Knighterase
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Razorv1olent-
Puckyoung G
SlardarBb3px
Dark Willowxsvampire
Naga SirenRESPECT
44% · 107 games
Snapfireslimeyao
Game 2prediction missed28:18
Nemiga Gaming 36%HULIGANI 64%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:02:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusabashka
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
Invokeryoung G
Shadow Fienderase
MarsCovisnine
PangolierBb3px
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Snapfireslimeyao
49% · 47 games
DazzleRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 74%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2