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DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 14 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 14 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 13 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 13 games
46%

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
61%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 16 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 14 games
79%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 14 games
57%
Warlock
Warlock
Bb3px · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
288 picks · 700 bans
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
278 picks · 178 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
256 picks · 230 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 651 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
248 picks · 252 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
245 picks · 615 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 105 bans
48%
Pugna
Pugna
242 picks · 251 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:13
Nemiga Gaming 39%HULIGANI 61%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordbashka
56% · 37 games53% · 206 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
46% · 122 games44% · 42 games
Razorv1olent-
Razor
Puck
Puckyoung G
49% · 207 games52% · 66 games
SlardarBb3px
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
45% · 180 games67% · 125 games
Naga SirenRESPECT
Naga Siren
44% · 107 games
Snapfireslimeyao
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed28:18
Nemiga Gaming 36%HULIGANI 64%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:02:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusabashka
48% · 136 games43% · 3 games
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
Phantom Lancer
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
54% · 178 games51% · 146 games
Shadow Fienderase
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsCovisnine
54% · 147 games48% · 260 games
PangolierBb3px
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkxsvampire
51% · 130 games45% · 135 games
Snapfireslimeyao
Snapfire
49% · 47 games
DazzleRESPECT
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 74%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2