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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 32 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 28 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 26 games
73%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
77%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 24 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
61%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 22 games
68%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 30 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 27 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 20 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 20 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skiter · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
343 picks · 236 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 692 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
277 picks · 140 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
276 picks · 273 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
268 picks · 729 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
260 picks · 602 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 517 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
243 picks · 506 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total54% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:7
PARIVISION 48%Team Falcons 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageSatanic
66% · 13 games48% · 155 games
DoomATF
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
45% · 107 games40% · 14 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Enigma
EnigmaDM
55% · 90 games49% · 82 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
57% · 153 games57% · 67 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Oracle
OracleDukalis
47% · 27 games39% · 72 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct4:22
PARIVISION 49%Team Falcons 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
51% · 234 games42% · 101 game
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
51% · 337 games42% · 253 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Enigma
EnigmaDM
57% · 116 games50% · 364 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner9Class
47% · 149 games59% · 111 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Snapfire
SnapfireDukalis
54% · 121 game48% · 128 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct17:36
PARIVISION 49%Team Falcons 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:05:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSatanic
42% · 11 games45% · 372 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
58% · 348 games47% · 264 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Phoenix
PhoenixDM
56% · 338 games43% · 150 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Clockwerk
Clockwerk9Class
55% · 388 games49% · 176 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Oracle
OracleDukalis
54% · 31 game36% · 154 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 54%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3