The International 2025 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 32 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 28 games
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 26 games
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
Slarksignature
9Class · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
Medusasignature
Satanic · 22 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 22 games
Team Falcons
Pangolieroften banned
ATF · 30 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 27 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 20 games
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 20 games
Marssignature
ATF · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skiter · 20 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
343 picks · 236 bans
Puck
310 picks · 692 bans
Dark Willow
277 picks · 140 bans
Tusk
276 picks · 273 bans
Batrider
268 picks · 729 bans
Dawnbreaker
260 picks · 602 bans
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 517 bans
Marci
243 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total54% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:7
PARIVISION 48%Team Falcons 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageSatanic
DoomATF
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Troll WarlordSkiter
EnigmaDM
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Monkey King9Class
ChenSneyking
OracleDukalis
SnapfireCr1t-
Game 2prediction correct4:22
PARIVISION 49%Team Falcons 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSatanic
UnderlordATF
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
Dragon KnightSkiter
EnigmaDM
PangolierMalr1ne
Centaur Warrunner9Class
ChenSneyking
SnapfireDukalis
HoodwinkCr1t-
Game 3prediction correct17:36
PARIVISION 49%Team Falcons 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:05:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautSatanic
PangolierATF
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
GyrocopterSkiter
PhoenixDM
Sand KingMalr1ne
Clockwerk9Class
EnchantressSneyking
OracleDukalis
SnapfireCr1t-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 54%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3