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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 29 games
66%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 26 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
68%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
89%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 31 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 26 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
61%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Satanic · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
430 picks · 374 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
352 picks · 184 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
334 picks · 330 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 784 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 828 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
275 picks · 365 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
274 picks · 538 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
273 picks · 621 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% PARIVISION
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Team Spirit 58%PARIVISION 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
52% · 184 games55% · 184 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
48% · 225 games46% · 174 games
InvokerNo[o]ne
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
46% · 150 games46% · 233 games
PhoenixDM
Phoenix
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
45% · 178 games61% · 216 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
50% · 190 games51% · 120 games
SnapfireDukalis
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed14:19
Team Spirit 59%PARIVISION 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanYatoro
54% · 75 games40% · 34 games
BroodmotherSatanic
Broodmother
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
45% · 125 games49% · 132 games
InvokerNo[o]ne
Invoker
Axe
AxeCollapse
48% · 54 games46% · 145 games
PhoenixDM
Phoenix
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
51% · 129 games57% · 196 games
Nature's ProphetDukalis
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
57% · 174 games47% · 50 games
Slark9Class
Slark
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2