The International 2025 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 29 games
Muertasignature
rue · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Banesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 26 games
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
Kunkkasignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
Medusasignature
Satanic · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
430 picks · 374 bans
Dark Willow
352 picks · 184 bans
Tusk
334 picks · 330 bans
Puck
331 picks · 784 bans
Batrider
322 picks · 828 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 365 bans
Nature's Prophet
274 picks · 538 bans
Dawnbreaker
273 picks · 621 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% PARIVISION
Head-to-head8 – 5
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Team Spirit 58%PARIVISION 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendYatoro
Templar AssassinSatanic
Ember SpiritLarl
InvokerNo[o]ne
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
PhoenixDM
Hoodwinkrue
Monkey King9Class
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
SnapfireDukalis
Game 2prediction missed14:19
Team Spirit 59%PARIVISION 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanYatoro
BroodmotherSatanic
Queen of PainLarl
InvokerNo[o]ne
AxeCollapse
PhoenixDM
Hoodwinkrue
Nature's ProphetDukalis
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
Slark9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2