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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Odiumwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 16 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 10 games
30%

Odium

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
lupsione · 4 games
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Lil · 4 games
75%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Actor · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
lupsione · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rain · 3 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Rain · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
577 picks · 591 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 423 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
356 picks · 368 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 508 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 696 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 851 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
305 picks · 631 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Odium
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:45
Nemiga Gaming 68%Odium 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Odium in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetbashka
53% · 170 games53% · 74 games
Ursaselfhate
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
50% · 56 games53% · 157 games
Storm SpiritRain
Storm Spirit
Axe
AxeCovisnine
44% · 69 games51% · 99 games
MarciActor
Marci
Windranger
Windrangerxsvampire
50% · 116 games47% · 73 games
Snapfirelupsione
Snapfire
37% · 8 games
Witch DoctorLil
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed43:37
Nemiga Gaming 70%Odium 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Odium in 59:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebashka
41% · 180 games46% · 69 games
Lunaselfhate
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
53% · 217 games56% · 136 games
Sand KingRain
Sand King
Underlord
UnderlordCovisnine
55% · 72 games44% · 60 games
AxeActor
Axe
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magexsvampire
little data51% · 141 game
Shadow Demonlupsione
Shadow Demon
57% · 63 games
Ogre MagiLil
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 82%
Series resultOdium 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2