European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 16 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 11 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
Marssignature
Covisnine · 10 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 10 games
Odium
Dark Willow
lupsione · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Lil · 4 games
Axeoften banned
Actor · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
lupsione · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Rain · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Rain · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
577 picks · 591 bans
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 423 bans
Tiny
356 picks · 368 bans
Pangolier
336 picks · 508 bans
Terrorblade
326 picks · 696 bans
Puck
321 picks · 851 bans
Nature's Prophet
305 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Odium
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:45
Nemiga Gaming 68%Odium 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Odium in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetbashka
Ursaselfhate
Void Spirityoung G
Storm SpiritRain
AxeCovisnine
MarciActor
Windrangerxsvampire
Snapfirelupsione
37% · 8 games
Witch DoctorLil
Game 2prediction missed43:37
Nemiga Gaming 70%Odium 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Odium in 59:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladebashka
Lunaselfhate
Storm Spirityoung G
Sand KingRain
UnderlordCovisnine
AxeActor
Skywrath Magexsvampire
Shadow Demonlupsione
57% · 63 games
Ogre MagiLil
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 82%
Series resultOdium 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2