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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 20 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 12 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 8 games
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
501 picks · 536 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 440 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 360 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
334 picks · 714 bans
47%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
325 picks · 187 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
302 picks · 445 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
301 picks · 569 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Passion UA 20%Yellow Submarine 80%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 2prediction correct
Passion UA 20%Yellow Submarine 80%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 3prediction missed
Passion UA 20%Yellow Submarine 80%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 80%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3