European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Passion UA
Tinyoften banned
niche · 20 games
Muerta
Fernans · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 12 games
Jakiro
kreker · 12 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
Yellow Submarine
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 9 games
Shadow Shamansignature
mrls · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 8 games
Axeoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
501 picks · 536 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 440 bans
Tusk
360 picks · 360 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 510 bans
Terrorblade
334 picks · 714 bans
Ringmaster
325 picks · 187 bans
Storm Spirit
302 picks · 445 bans
Nature's Prophet
301 picks · 569 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Passion UA 20%Yellow Submarine 80%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 2prediction correct
Passion UA 20%Yellow Submarine 80%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 3prediction missed
Passion UA 20%Yellow Submarine 80%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 80%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3