The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 11 games
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
Magnussignature
Tino- · 10 games
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 8 games
Tech Free Gaming
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
MamangDaya · 10 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dalul · 9 games
Razorsignature
TraVins · 8 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
TraVins · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 6 games
Silencer
Varizh · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Varizh · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
559 picks · 630 bans
Ringmaster
482 picks · 247 bans
Jakiro
457 picks · 427 bans
Terrorblade
396 picks · 837 bans
Storm Spirit
372 picks · 555 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 323 bans
Shadow Shaman
366 picks · 423 bans
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 827 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Tech Free Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:30
Execration 62%Tech Free Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPalos
DoomTraVins
Void SpiritTino-
Dark Seerdb-
VenomancerShanks
PangolierMamangDaya
Witch Doctorcml
Nature's ProphetVarizh
little data
Techiesdalul
Game 2prediction correct29:10
Execration 60%Tech Free Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 24:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzPalos
GyrocopterTraVins
UndyingTino-
Beastmasterdb-
Bounty HunterShanks
PangolierMamangDaya
Disruptorcml
Batriderdalul
little data
Witch DoctorVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 71%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2