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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tech Free Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Akashi · 15 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 11 games
45%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Tino- · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 8 games
38%

Tech Free Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
MamangDaya · 10 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dalul · 9 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
TraVins · 8 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
TraVins · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 6 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Varizh · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Varizh · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 630 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
482 picks · 247 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
457 picks · 427 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
396 picks · 837 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
372 picks · 555 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 323 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
366 picks · 423 bans
57%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 827 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Tech Free Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:30
Execration 62%Tech Free Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPalos
57% · 150 games50% · 67 games
DoomTraVins
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTino-
48% · 81 game54% · 60 games
Dark Seerdb-
Dark Seer
Venomancer
VenomancerShanks
48% · 32 games51% · 117 games
PangolierMamangDaya
Pangolier
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
33% · 18 games45% · 37 games
Nature's ProphetVarizh
Nature's Prophet
little data
Techiesdalul
Techies
Game 2prediction correct29:10
Execration 60%Tech Free Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 24:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzPalos
52% · 55 games48% · 47 games
GyrocopterTraVins
Gyrocopter
Undying
UndyingTino-
58% · 71 game50% · 90 games
Beastmasterdb-
Beastmaster
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterShanks
55% · 94 games51% · 82 games
PangolierMamangDaya
Pangolier
Disruptor
Disruptorcml
44% · 91 game43% · 92 games
Batriderdalul
Batrider
little data
Witch DoctorVarizh
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 71%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2