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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 24 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 18 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 16 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 16 games
69%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 27 games
30%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 27 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 26 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 628 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
482 picks · 245 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
455 picks · 427 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
396 picks · 833 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
369 picks · 553 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 322 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
360 picks · 423 bans
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 827 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
Wildcard Gaming 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomYamSun
50% · 220 games50% · 114 games
RazorNande
Razor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
50% · 231 game47% · 146 games
KunkkaMirage
Kunkka
Puck
PuckRCY
49% · 136 games45% · 183 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenSpeeed
56% · 60 games54% · 141 game
Shadow ShamanPablo
Shadow Shaman
Axe
AxeBignum
54% · 37 games48% · 100 games
MarciLeBronDota
Marci
Game 2prediction missed13:22
Wildcard Gaming 62%Zero Tenacity 38%
The model gave 62% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYamSun
47% · 124 games52% · 285 games
GyrocopterNande
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
50% · 312 games52% · 264 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaRCY
42% · 113 games53% · 204 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSpeeed
55% · 107 games51% · 163 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Tusk
TuskBignum
48% · 327 games49% · 67 games
UndyingLeBronDota
Undying
Game 3prediction missed27:39
Wildcard Gaming 62%Zero Tenacity 38%
The model gave 62% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 53:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
54% · 226 games50% · 145 games
SvenNande
Sven
Doom
DoomYamSun
52% · 236 games46% · 304 games
BatriderMirage
Batrider
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
46% · 256 games40% · 81 game
SlardarNefrit
Slardar
Chen
ChenSpeeed
55% · 115 games49% · 190 games
EnchantressLeBronDota
Enchantress
Bane
BaneBignum
56% · 38 games52% · 151 game
Shadow ShamanPablo
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 71%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3