CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 24 games
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 18 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 16 games
Pucksignature
RCY · 16 games
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
Zero Tenacity
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 27 games
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 26 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
559 picks · 628 bans
Ringmaster
482 picks · 245 bans
Jakiro
455 picks · 427 bans
Terrorblade
396 picks · 833 bans
Storm Spirit
369 picks · 553 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 322 bans
Shadow Shaman
360 picks · 423 bans
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 827 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
Wildcard Gaming 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomYamSun
RazorNande
BeastmasterFayde
KunkkaMirage
PuckRCY
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
ChenSpeeed
Shadow ShamanPablo
AxeBignum
MarciLeBronDota
Game 2prediction missed13:22
Wildcard Gaming 62%Zero Tenacity 38%
The model gave 62% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYamSun
GyrocopterNande
BeastmasterFayde
PuckMirage
KunkkaRCY
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Naga SirenSpeeed
RubickPablo
TuskBignum
UndyingLeBronDota
Game 3prediction missed27:39
Wildcard Gaming 62%Zero Tenacity 38%
The model gave 62% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 53:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritRCY
SvenNande
DoomYamSun
BatriderMirage
BeastmasterFayde
SlardarNefrit
ChenSpeeed
EnchantressLeBronDota
BaneBignum
Shadow ShamanPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 71%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3