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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 14 games
64%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 13 games
92%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 12 games
83%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 10 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
MikSa` · 10 games
60%

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 9 games
44%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lion
mrls · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 618 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
480 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
396 picks · 814 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
364 picks · 543 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 817 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 319 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
351 picks · 404 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:25
Team Secret 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linare1bl
49% · 178 games48% · 172 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Doom
DoomCloud
51% · 268 games51% · 113 games
TimbersawInfernal
Timbersaw
Abaddon
AbaddonKiritych
50% · 120 games53% · 387 games
Tinybottega
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroThiolicor
46% · 282 games49% · 50 games
Death ProphetXakoda
Death Prophet
Mirana
MiranaPuppey
52% · 101 game51% · 227 games
Batriderlupsione
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed30:41
Team Secret 63%Yellow Submarine 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:15:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
51% · 343 games46% · 409 games
Tinybottega
Tiny
Kunkka
Kunkkare1bl
43% · 204 games42% · 8 games
Outworld DestroyerMirele
Outworld Destroyer
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPuppey
57% · 117 games43% · 350 games
PangolierInfernal
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusCloud
57% · 268 games54% · 194 games
Shadow Demonlupsione
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
56% · 220 games48% · 191 game
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 70%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2