The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 14 games
Chensignature
Puppey · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 13 games
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 12 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
MikSa` · 10 games
Yellow Submarine
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 9 games
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
Lion
mrls · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
559 picks · 618 bans
Ringmaster
480 picks · 240 bans
Jakiro
461 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
396 picks · 814 bans
Storm Spirit
364 picks · 543 bans
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 817 bans
Tusk
354 picks · 319 bans
Shadow Shaman
351 picks · 404 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:25
Team Secret 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linare1bl
PuckMirele
DoomCloud
TimbersawInfernal
AbaddonKiritych
Tinybottega
JakiroThiolicor
Death ProphetXakoda
MiranaPuppey
Batriderlupsione
Game 2prediction missed30:41
Team Secret 63%Yellow Submarine 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:15:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKiritych
Tinybottega
Kunkkare1bl
Outworld DestroyerMirele
Naga SirenPuppey
PangolierInfernal
MagnusCloud
Shadow Demonlupsione
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
RingmasterXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 70%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2