The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tearlaments
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Echo · 4 games
Ringmaster
7e · 4 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
7e · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Srf · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 3 games
Muerta
poyoyo · 3 games
Vici Gaming
Phoenix
Dy · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ori · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Yang · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Yang · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Kaka · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Ori · 2 games
Disruptor
Dy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
521 picks · 601 bans
Ringmaster
470 picks · 237 bans
Jakiro
467 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
370 picks · 768 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 506 bans
Ancient Apparition
340 picks · 788 bans
Tusk
325 picks · 296 bans
Windranger
310 picks · 96 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:15
Tearlaments 48%Vici Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
MorphlingPaparazi
KunkkaEcho
PangolierOri
EnigmaSrf
Dark SeerYang
Dark Willow7e
TinyKaka
Treant Protectorzzq
Ancient ApparitionDy
Game 2prediction missed29:26
Tearlaments 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 44:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusapoyoyo
GyrocopterPaparazi
KunkkaEcho
Storm SpiritOri
Dark SeerSrf
DawnbreakerYang
Elder Titanzzq
Dark WillowKaka
Shadow Shaman7e
Vengeful SpiritDy
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 59%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2