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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 29 games
76%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 25 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 20 games
65%
Magnus
Magnussignature
No!ob · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
53%

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Supream^ · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 13 games
92%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusk
Puppey · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 597 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
476 picks · 435 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
469 picks · 237 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
370 picks · 768 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 509 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 786 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
323 picks · 292 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 94 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total63% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Nigma Galaxy 57%Team Secret 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerGhost
52% · 59 games56% · 29 games
Troll WarlordKiritych
Troll Warlord
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
52% · 313 games41% · 210 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
57% · 223 games47% · 228 games
Storm Spiritre1bl
Storm Spirit
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
51% · 168 games51% · 167 games
Dark WillowThiolicor
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
51% · 121 game46% · 250 games
PhoenixPuppey
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct33:7
Nigma Galaxy 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenGhost
55% · 139 games39% · 46 games
Drow RangerKiritych
Drow Ranger
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNo!ob
53% · 183 games41% · 301 game
Pangolierre1bl
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
55% · 241 game51% · 47 games
UndyingCloud
Undying
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
57% · 153 games48% · 160 games
Dark WillowThiolicor
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
53% · 116 games48% · 278 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 63%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2