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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cyber Goosewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
50%
Sven
Sven
rincyq · 4 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Mirage · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
aik · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Ponlo · 1 game
0%

Cyber Goose

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Solo · 3 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 3 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Noticed · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Solo · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
483 picks · 449 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
480 picks · 562 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
450 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
354 picks · 708 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
311 picks · 488 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 723 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 252 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
291 picks · 91 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Cyber Goose
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Kalmychata 38%Cyber Goose 62%
The model gave 62% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenrincyq
44% · 146 games49% · 75 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawfortniteMan
47% · 235 games58% · 164 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarMirage
50% · 91 game50% · 233 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPonlo
51% · 46 games43% · 126 games
Windrangerprblms
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanaik
53% · 156 games58% · 76 games
Ancient ApparitionSolo
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct15:30
Kalmychata 36%Cyber Goose 64%
The model gave 64% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 28:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomrincyq
50% · 284 games48% · 312 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
48% · 384 games58% · 164 games
EnigmaNoticed
Enigma
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
47% · 202 games55% · 272 games
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Monkey King
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionaik
51% · 211 games46% · 381 game
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Muerta
MuertaPonlo
46% · 382 games50% · 334 games
JakiroSolo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteCyber Goose · 77%
Series resultCyber Goose 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2