The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
Sven
rincyq · 4 games
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 3 games
Shadow Fiend
Mirage · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
aik · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
Omniknightoften banned
aik · 2 games
Dark Willow
Ponlo · 1 game
Cyber Goose
Shadow Demon
Solo · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Noticed · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Solo · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
483 picks · 449 bans
Tiny
480 picks · 562 bans
Ringmaster
450 picks · 232 bans
Terrorblade
354 picks · 708 bans
Storm Spirit
311 picks · 488 bans
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 723 bans
Tusk
305 picks · 252 bans
Windranger
291 picks · 91 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Cyber Goose
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Kalmychata 38%Cyber Goose 62%
The model gave 62% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenrincyq
MedusaTA2000
TimbersawfortniteMan
BristlebackNoticed
SlardarMirage
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Chaos KnightPonlo
Windrangerprblms
Shadow Shamanaik
Ancient ApparitionSolo
Game 2prediction correct15:30
Kalmychata 36%Cyber Goose 64%
The model gave 64% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 28:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomrincyq
TerrorbladeTA2000
Storm SpiritMirage
EnigmaNoticed
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
Ancient Apparitionaik
Tuskprblms
MuertaPonlo
JakiroSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteCyber Goose · 77%
Series resultCyber Goose 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2