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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 43 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 36 games
72%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 26 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 21 game
43%
Silencer
Silencersignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 34 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 28 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 28 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 27 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 23 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kataomi · 22 games
59%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
492 picks · 488 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 558 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
418 picks · 199 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 576 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
284 picks · 396 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 169 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
276 picks · 589 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
265 picks · 466 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head4 – 8
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:31
Team Liquid 49%BETBOOM TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeV-Tune
47% · 141 game44% · 103 games
KunkkaKiritych
Kunkka
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
50% · 87 games48% · 264 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
48% · 220 games56% · 109 games
EnigmaMieRo
Enigma
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
50% · 74 games48% · 51 game
Chaos KnightSave-
Chaos Knight
Riki
RikiBoxi
62% · 21 game63% · 16 games
OracleKataomi
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct13:37
Team Liquid 49%BETBOOM TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeV-Tune
47% · 193 games50% · 173 games
Templar AssassinKiritych
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
53% · 268 games52% · 21 game
UndyingMieRo
Undying
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
45% · 103 games47% · 359 games
PangoliergpK~
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
50% · 201 game55% · 91 game
Naga SirenKataomi
Naga Siren
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
51% · 50 games51% · 171 game
WindrangerSave-
Windranger
Game 3prediction correct11:27
Team Liquid 48%BETBOOM TEAM 52%
The model gave 52% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
52% · 98 games36% · 12 games
Death ProphetgpK~
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyV-Tune
47% · 266 games56% · 252 games
MorphlingKiritych
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
52% · 62 games49% · 209 games
Dark SeerMieRo
Dark Seer
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
58% · 47 games51% · 50 games
BaneKataomi
Bane
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
43% · 141 game48% · 91 game
Chaos KnightSave-
Chaos Knight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3