DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 43 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 36 games
Muertasignature
Boxi · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 21 game
Silencersignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
BETBOOM TEAM
Muerta
Save- · 34 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 28 games
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 28 games
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 23 games
Crystal Maiden
Kataomi · 22 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
Lichsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
492 picks · 488 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 558 bans
Ringmaster
418 picks · 199 bans
Terrorblade
322 picks · 576 bans
Storm Spirit
284 picks · 396 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 169 bans
Ancient Apparition
276 picks · 589 bans
Ember Spirit
265 picks · 466 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head4 – 8
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:31
Team Liquid 49%BETBOOM TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeV-Tune
KunkkaKiritych
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Ember SpiritgpK~
Storm SpiritNisha
EnigmaMieRo
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Chaos KnightSave-
RikiBoxi
OracleKataomi
Game 2prediction correct13:37
Team Liquid 49%BETBOOM TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeV-Tune
Templar AssassinKiritych
Storm SpiritNisha
UndyingMieRo
UnderlordSabeRLight-
PangoliergpK~
MuertaBoxi
Naga SirenKataomi
DisruptoriNSaNiA
WindrangerSave-
Game 3prediction correct11:27
Team Liquid 48%BETBOOM TEAM 52%
The model gave 52% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerNisha
Death ProphetgpK~
TinyV-Tune
MorphlingKiritych
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dark SeerMieRo
DisruptoriNSaNiA
BaneKataomi
WindrangerBoxi
Chaos KnightSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3