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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 49 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 48 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 44 games
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 38 games
61%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 37 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 34 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 31 game
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 27 games
44%

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 15 games
33%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 12 games
58%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
58%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
641 picks · 689 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
520 picks · 334 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
434 picks · 921 bans
52%
Doom
Doom
434 picks · 926 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 852 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 873 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
383 picks · 390 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
381 picks · 985 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 24%
Hero pool strength57% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
9Pandas 65%Team Secret 35%
The model gave 65% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
58% · 100 games48% · 237 games
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 199 games49% · 185 games
Templar AssassinArmel
Templar Assassin
Lycan
LycanMieRo
53% · 85 games45% · 66 games
Legion CommanderFbz
Legion Commander
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
47% · 157 games52% · 16 games
Shadow ShamanPuppey
Shadow Shaman
Undying
UndyingSolo
50% · 247 games50% · 284 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct28:14
9Pandas 62%Team Secret 38%
The model gave 62% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
47% · 185 games44% · 135 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawMieRo
45% · 242 games52% · 163 games
Templar AssassinArmel
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 232 games54% · 277 games
BatriderFbz
Batrider
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
45% · 168 games55% · 86 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSolo
53% · 57 games54% · 223 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 71%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2