Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 49 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 48 games
Rubick
Antares · 44 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 38 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 37 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 34 games
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 27 games
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
Snapfire
Armel · 15 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
641 picks · 689 bans
Rubick
520 picks · 334 bans
Batrider
434 picks · 921 bans
Doom
434 picks · 926 bans
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 852 bans
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 873 bans
Spirit Breaker
383 picks · 390 bans
Beastmaster
381 picks · 985 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 24%
Hero pool strength57% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
9Pandas 65%Team Secret 35%
The model gave 65% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistRAMZES666
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Templar AssassinArmel
LycanMieRo
Legion CommanderFbz
Skywrath MageAntares
Shadow ShamanPuppey
UndyingSolo
Batrideryamich
Game 2prediction correct28:14
9Pandas 62%Team Secret 38%
The model gave 62% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
UrsaCrystallis
TimbersawMieRo
Templar AssassinArmel
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
BatriderFbz
Skywrath MageAntares
ChenPuppey
Elder TitanSolo
Clockwerkyamich
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 71%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2