Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesisloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Rubick
Bignum · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Fayde · 6 games
Lifestealersignature
Sammyboy · 6 games
Execration
Razorsignature
Abat · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 9 games
Elder Titan
cml · 8 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
Rubick
Shanks · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
377 picks · 801 bans
Hoodwink
363 picks · 366 bans
Rubick
351 picks · 257 bans
Weaver
346 picks · 730 bans
Clockwerk
318 picks · 467 bans
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 371 bans
Pangolier
308 picks · 507 bans
Phoenix
305 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:25
Apex Genesis 48%Execration 52%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightSammyboy
Troll WarlordAbat
Ember SpiritW1sh-
BeastmasterTino-
EnigmaFayde
RubickShanks
HoodwinkBignum
Alchemistcml
JakiroYamSun
Game 2prediction correct17:44
Apex Genesis 47%Execration 53%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightSammyboy
BeastmasterTino-
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Troll WarlordAbat
VisageFayde
HoodwinkShanks
SnapfireBignum
Elder Titancml
Crystal MaidenYamSun
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 55%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2