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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesisloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 9 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Fayde · 6 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Sammyboy · 6 games
67%

Execration

Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 9 games
78%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
cml · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
57%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Abat · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 801 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
363 picks · 366 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
351 picks · 257 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
346 picks · 730 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 467 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 371 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 507 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
305 picks · 627 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:25
Apex Genesis 48%Execration 52%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSammyboy
51% · 68 games52% · 120 games
Troll WarlordAbat
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
44% · 151 game44% · 124 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
54% · 95 games48% · 276 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
50% · 198 games61% · 81 game
Alchemistcml
Alchemist
Jakiro
JakiroYamSun
51% · 89 games
Game 2prediction correct17:44
Apex Genesis 47%Execration 53%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSammyboy
50% · 82 games55% · 100 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
46% · 142 games53% · 98 games
Troll WarlordAbat
Troll Warlord
Visage
VisageFayde
53% · 18 games51% · 216 games
HoodwinkShanks
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireBignum
47% · 118 games49% · 96 games
Elder Titancml
Elder Titan
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYamSun
49% · 150 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 55%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2