PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 51 game
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 45 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 45 games
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 44 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
Marssignature
Ws · 35 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 31 game
BETBOOM TEAM
Jakiro
Kataomi · 41 game
Tusk
Kataomi · 37 games
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 34 games
Muerta
Save- · 28 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 24 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
599 picks · 517 bans
Tiny
534 picks · 413 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 540 bans
Hoodwink
486 picks · 247 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 408 bans
Puck
390 picks · 916 bans
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 993 bans
Warlock
387 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total65% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:49
Aurora Gaming 56%BETBOOM TEAM 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:21:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMikoto
Monkey KingKiritych
TinyNightfall
PangoliergpK~
MarsWs
DawnbreakerMieRo
PhoenixKaori
WindrangerSave-
LionMira
OracleKataomi
Game 2prediction correct41:18
Aurora Gaming 57%BETBOOM TEAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyNightfall
BristlebackMieRo
Void SpiritMikoto
Faceless VoidKiritych
MarsWs
PuckgpK~
WarlockKaori
HoodwinkSave-
RubickMira
SilencerKataomi
Game 3prediction missed9:36
Aurora Gaming 58%BETBOOM TEAM 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaNightfall
Monkey KingKiritych
PuckMikoto
HuskargpK~
MarsWs
BatriderMieRo
TechiesMira
HoodwinkSave-
WarlockKaori
OracleKataomi
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 65%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3