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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 51 game
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 45 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 45 games
73%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 44 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 31 game
74%

BETBOOM TEAM

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kataomi · 41 game
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 37 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 34 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 28 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
gpK~ · 24 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
599 picks · 517 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 413 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 540 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 247 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 408 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 916 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 993 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
387 picks · 234 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total65% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:49
Aurora Gaming 56%BETBOOM TEAM 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:21:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
46% · 258 games56% · 217 games
Monkey KingKiritych
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyNightfall
50% · 337 games51% · 388 games
PangoliergpK~
Pangolier
Mars
MarsWs
48% · 266 games51% · 185 games
DawnbreakerMieRo
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
44% · 195 games57% · 286 games
WindrangerSave-
Windranger
Lion
LionMira
41% · 77 games55% · 57 games
OracleKataomi
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct41:18
Aurora Gaming 57%BETBOOM TEAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
51% · 441 game51% · 345 games
BristlebackMieRo
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
44% · 474 games56% · 146 games
Faceless VoidKiritych
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsWs
49% · 380 games47% · 712 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Warlock
WarlockKaori
45% · 364 games54% · 503 games
HoodwinkSave-
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickMira
46% · 208 games56% · 161 game
SilencerKataomi
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed9:36
Aurora Gaming 58%BETBOOM TEAM 42%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
49% · 194 games58% · 235 games
Monkey KingKiritych
Monkey King
Puck
PuckMikoto
47% · 348 games53% · 100 games
HuskargpK~
Huskar
Mars
MarsWs
45% · 275 games54% · 365 games
BatriderMieRo
Batrider
Techies
TechiesMira
49% · 45 games53% · 404 games
HoodwinkSave-
Hoodwink
Warlock
WarlockKaori
44% · 287 games49% · 45 games
OracleKataomi
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 65%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3