PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
Tiny
Mo13ei · 26 games
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 16 games
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 15 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shad · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
441 picks · 417 bans
Snapfire
430 picks · 216 bans
Puck
351 picks · 924 bans
Pugna
326 picks · 369 bans
Warlock
292 picks · 147 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 227 bans
Batrider
280 picks · 668 bans
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
AVULUS 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSmiling Knight
GyrocopterShad
BeastmasterLorenof
Ember SpiritStojkov
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
UndyingMikSa`
MiranaEkki
TuskLelis
PhoenixJANTER
Skywrath MageDaze
Game 2prediction correct15:42
AVULUS 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritLorenof
GyrocopterShad
SvenSmiling Knight
Storm SpiritStojkov
UndyingSabeRLight-
DawnbreakerMikSa`
SnapfireEkki
Monkey KingDaze
JakiroJANTER
SilencerLelis
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2