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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 29 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 26 games
35%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 16 games
56%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 15 games
60%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 19 games
37%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 17 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shad · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
441 picks · 417 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
430 picks · 216 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 924 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 369 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
292 picks · 147 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
280 picks · 668 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 852 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
AVULUS 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
55% · 220 games49% · 352 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLorenof
53% · 368 games51% · 232 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
52% · 164 games41% · 92 games
UndyingMikSa`
Undying
Mirana
MiranaEkki
55% · 56 games47% · 390 games
TuskLelis
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixJANTER
50% · 280 games44% · 22 games
Skywrath MageDaze
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct15:42
AVULUS 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
49% · 369 games48% · 224 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Sven
SvenSmiling Knight
52% · 201 game51% · 386 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Undying
UndyingSabeRLight-
48% · 157 games47% · 212 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Snapfire
SnapfireEkki
50% · 175 games59% · 189 games
Monkey KingDaze
Monkey King
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
47% · 308 games50% · 199 games
SilencerLelis
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2