Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 32 games
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 32 games
Techiessignature
Save- · 31 game
Pugnasignature
Save- · 30 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 29 games
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 26 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 25 games
Rubicksignature
Save- · 23 games
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 49 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 46 games
Rubick
Antares · 44 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 38 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 36 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 34 games
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 27 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
647 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
533 picks · 343 bans
Doom
449 picks · 953 bans
Batrider
436 picks · 936 bans
Ember Spirit
413 picks · 863 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 877 bans
Void Spirit
386 picks · 344 bans
Beastmaster
385 picks · 998 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total60% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:32
BETBOOM TEAM 56%9Pandas 44%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:00:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightPure~
TimbersawMieRo
Monkey KingNightfall
Night StalkerRAMZES666
Storm SpiritgpK~
Windrangerkiyotaka
Keeper of the LightSave-
DoomAntares
OracleTORONTOTOKYO
SilencerSolo
Game 2prediction missed
BETBOOM TEAM 60%9Pandas 40%
The model gave 60% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by 9Pandas.
Game 3prediction correct37:13
BETBOOM TEAM 55%9Pandas 45%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNightfall
AlchemistRAMZES666
Storm SpiritgpK~
Windrangerkiyotaka
AxePure~
EnigmaMieRo
OracleTORONTOTOKYO
DoomAntares
Keeper of the LightSave-
Witch DoctorSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 60%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3