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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 3:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 40 games
57%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 25 games
64%
Bane
Bane
Kataomi · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 22 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 20 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
63%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 22 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 21 game
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 17 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
563 picks · 733 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 359 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 657 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 551 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 127 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
379 picks · 622 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
377 picks · 180 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 539 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total69% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:7
BETBOOM TEAM 58%Aurora Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKiritych
53% · 248 games41% · 142 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
48% · 420 games46% · 371 game
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Enigma
EnigmaMieRo
62% · 132 games50% · 138 games
Primal BeastWs
Primal Beast
Tinker
TinkerKataomi
49% · 97 games51% · 160 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSave-
51% · 279 games48% · 365 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct34:8
BETBOOM TEAM 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKiritych
47% · 254 games50% · 44 games
OmniknightNightfall
Omniknight
Sniper
SnipergpK~
51% · 59 games51% · 68 games
ViperMikoto
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterMieRo
46% · 185 games64% · 92 games
EnigmaWs
Enigma
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
46% · 138 games48% · 298 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorKataomi
49% · 237 games49% · 371 game
TuskMira
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed3:22
BETBOOM TEAM 62%Aurora Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 14:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkagpK~
50% · 92 games46% · 26 games
OmniknightNightfall
Omniknight
Viper
ViperKiritych
54% · 41 game44% · 66 games
Primal BeastWs
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
TidehunterMieRo
60% · 125 games46% · 41 game
SniperMikoto
Sniper
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
46% · 106 games48% · 113 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKataomi
58% · 61 game48% · 179 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Game 4prediction correct35:31
BETBOOM TEAM 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 48:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKiritych
47% · 195 games49% · 129 games
Shadow FiendNightfall
Shadow Fiend
Enigma
EnigmaMieRo
49% · 95 games56% · 356 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinygpK~
49% · 329 games51% · 247 games
MarsWs
Mars
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKataomi
50% · 58 games48% · 67 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSave-
45% · 237 games56% · 115 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 69%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4