DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs predictionseries probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Hoodwink
Save- · 40 games
Muertasignature
Save- · 25 games
Bane
Kataomi · 23 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 23 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 21 game
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 20 games
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
Aurora Gaming
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 21 game
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 733 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 359 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 657 bans
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 551 bans
Snapfire
386 picks · 127 bans
Shadow Demon
379 picks · 622 bans
Hoodwink
377 picks · 180 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total69% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:7
BETBOOM TEAM 58%Aurora Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinKiritych
WindrangerNightfall
Storm SpiritgpK~
Dragon KnightMikoto
EnigmaMieRo
Primal BeastWs
TinkerKataomi
Ancient ApparitionKaori
HoodwinkSave-
TuskMira
Game 2prediction correct34:8
BETBOOM TEAM 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonKiritych
OmniknightNightfall
SnipergpK~
ViperMikoto
TidehunterMieRo
EnigmaWs
WindrangerSave-
WarlockKaori
DisruptorKataomi
TuskMira
Game 3prediction missed3:22
BETBOOM TEAM 62%Aurora Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 14:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkagpK~
OmniknightNightfall
ViperKiritych
Primal BeastWs
TidehunterMieRo
SniperMikoto
WindrangerSave-
Dark WillowMira
Ogre MagiKataomi
WarlockKaori
Game 4prediction correct35:31
BETBOOM TEAM 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 48:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinKiritych
Shadow FiendNightfall
EnigmaMieRo
Ember SpiritMikoto
TinygpK~
MarsWs
Ogre MagiKataomi
Skywrath MageMira
HoodwinkSave-
UndyingKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 69%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4