DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 23 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 22 games
Tiny
gpK~ · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
Rubicksignature
Save- · 21 game
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 19 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 17 games
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
LGD Gaming
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 22 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
Phoenix
pLAnet · 21 game
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 15 games
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
726 picks · 530 bans
Disruptor
594 picks · 515 bans
Doom
558 picks · 1092 bans
Beastmaster
556 picks · 1242 bans
Techies
533 picks · 589 bans
Pangolier
470 picks · 937 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1061 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 656 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:10
BETBOOM TEAM 50%LGD Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomPure~
Alchemistshiro
Faceless VoidNightfall
PuckNothingToSay
Storm SpiritgpK~
Timbersawniu
PugnaSave-
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maideny`
Game 2prediction missed34:13
BETBOOM TEAM 50%LGD Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 43:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNightfall
Muertashiro
Templar AssassingpK~
Beastmasterniu
DoomPure~
TimbersawNothingToSay
TechiesSave-
LionpLAnet
Spirit BreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Undyingy`
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2