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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 18 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 16 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 14 games
71%

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 18 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
472 picks · 204 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 832 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 593 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 663 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 723 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 619 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
381 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:14
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
47% · 214 games48% · 219 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Sniper
SnipergpK~
49% · 34 games54% · 135 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaMieRo
53% · 166 games55% · 50 games
Slardar33
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderSave-
49% · 256 games47% · 287 games
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 168 games52% · 147 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct18:39
BETBOOM TEAM 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNightfall
54% · 77 games47% · 141 game
LunamiCKe
Luna
Sniper
SnipergpK~
61% · 49 games41% · 129 games
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Tiny
TinyMieRo
50% · 243 games51% · 195 games
Doom33
Doom
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSave-
48% · 132 games49% · 223 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Enchantress
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 292 games52% · 105 games
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2