ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
Lion
Save- · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 18 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 16 games
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 14 games
Team Liquid
Lunasignature
miCKe · 27 games
Rubick
Boxi · 24 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
Doomsignature
33 · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 18 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
472 picks · 204 bans
Batrider
451 picks · 832 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 593 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 663 bans
Rubick
419 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
393 picks · 723 bans
Mars
390 picks · 619 bans
Techies
381 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:14
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNightfall
LunamiCKe
SnipergpK~
LeshracNisha
KunkkaMieRo
Slardar33
BatriderSave-
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
HoodwinkBoxi
Game 2prediction correct18:39
BETBOOM TEAM 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNightfall
LunamiCKe
SnipergpK~
KunkkaNisha
TinyMieRo
Doom33
Dark WillowSave-
TechiesBoxi
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2