Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 7 games
Magnussignature
ILICH- · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
AcatSuki
Mirana
Prada · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 1 game
Jakiro
Adrx · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Rubick
Prada · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 557 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
Mars
341 picks · 507 bans
Techies
324 picks · 255 bans
Batrider
313 picks · 618 bans
Hoodwink
310 picks · 184 bans
Tiny
295 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% AcatSuki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:31
BOOM Esports 68%AcatSuki 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordPakazs
SvenNeKo
KunkkaILICH-
Monkey KingRobo-Z
TechiesPanda
MarsAdrx
55% · 116 games
MiranaKiri
50% · 46 games
GyrocopterPrada
Game 2prediction correct36:18
BOOM Esports 68%AcatSuki 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidPakazs
SvenNeKo
KunkkaILICH-
DawnbreakerAdrx
Crystal MaidenPanda
HuskarRobo-Z
51% · 80 games
GrimstrokeKiri
48% · 55 games
GyrocopterPrada
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 82%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2