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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AcatSukiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
ILICH- · 6 games
83%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
67%

AcatSuki

Mirana
Mirana
Prada · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Adrx · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 1 game
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Prada · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 557 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 337 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 507 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
324 picks · 255 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 618 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
310 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
295 picks · 280 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% AcatSuki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:31
BOOM Esports 68%AcatSuki 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPakazs
52% · 93 games54% · 93 games
SvenNeKo
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaILICH-
45% · 122 games55% · 91 game
Monkey KingRobo-Z
Monkey King
Techies
TechiesPanda
47% · 247 games46% · 116 games
MarsAdrx
Mars
55% · 116 games
MiranaKiri
Mirana
50% · 46 games
GyrocopterPrada
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct36:18
BOOM Esports 68%AcatSuki 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPakazs
50% · 116 games45% · 87 games
SvenNeKo
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaILICH-
49% · 112 games47% · 59 games
DawnbreakerAdrx
Dawnbreaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
56% · 74 games56% · 21 game
HuskarRobo-Z
Huskar
51% · 80 games
GrimstrokeKiri
Grimstroke
48% · 55 games
GyrocopterPrada
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 82%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2