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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 18 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 13 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jaunuel · 12 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 12 games
58%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
385 picks · 347 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
342 picks · 170 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 859 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
295 picks · 339 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
283 picks · 126 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 248 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 790 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
272 picks · 683 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total56% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:37
BOOM Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
55% · 142 games49% · 190 games
Nature's ProphetPalos
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
43% · 232 games50% · 242 games
EarthshakerBob
Earthshaker
Phoenix
PhoenixSancity
54% · 152 games44% · 215 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Chen
ChenNARMAN
60% · 84 games48% · 158 games
Bounty HunterShanks
Bounty Hunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
50% · 203 games50% · 8 games
Witch Doctorcml
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed35:26
BOOM Esports 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 49:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJaCkky
52% · 196 games47% · 137 games
SvenPalos
Sven
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJabz
43% · 256 games54% · 104 games
LycanTino-
Lycan
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSancity
54% · 92 games50% · 250 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNARMAN
55% · 131 game48% · 234 games
GyrocopterShanks
Gyrocopter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
43% · 153 games55% · 103 games
Banecml
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 56%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2