FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
Tiny
Tims · 18 games
Pucksignature
Armel · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 13 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 13 games
Disruptor
Jaunuel · 12 games
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 12 games
Execration
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 12 games
Witch Doctor
cml · 12 games
Tusksignature
Shanks · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 10 games
Batridersignature
Shanks · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 9 games
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
Magnussignature
Tino- · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
385 picks · 347 bans
Snapfire
342 picks · 170 bans
Puck
340 picks · 859 bans
Pugna
295 picks · 339 bans
Warlock
283 picks · 126 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 248 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 790 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 683 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total56% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:37
BOOM Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingJaCkky
Nature's ProphetPalos
PangolierJabz
EarthshakerBob
PhoenixSancity
MarsTino-
ChenNARMAN
Bounty HunterShanks
ClockwerkJhocam
Witch Doctorcml
Game 2prediction missed35:26
BOOM Esports 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 49:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetJaCkky
SvenPalos
DawnbreakerJabz
LycanTino-
Void SpiritSancity
Storm SpiritBob
Naga SirenNARMAN
GyrocopterShanks
HoodwinkJhocam
Banecml
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 56%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2