BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Tusk
Jhocam · 19 games
Pucksignature
Sancity · 18 games
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
Dragon Knight
JaCkky · 16 games
Disruptoroften banned
NARMAN · 15 games
Tiny
Tims · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 14 games
Execration
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 23 games
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
Marssignature
Tino- · 16 games
Tusksignature
Shanks · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
Svenoften banned
Palos · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 11 games
Magnus
Tino- · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
526 picks · 269 bans
Disruptor
483 picks · 493 bans
Puck
370 picks · 1004 bans
Pugna
329 picks · 378 bans
Warlock
310 picks · 147 bans
Mars
308 picks · 521 bans
Earthshaker
304 picks · 498 bans
Hoodwink
304 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head6 – 5
Model total62% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:32
BOOM Esports 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa23savage
GyrocopterPalos
Dragon KnightSancity
PuckBob
Monkey KingJabz
UndyingTino-
DisruptorNARMAN
RingmasterShanks
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Crystal Maidencml
Game 2prediction missed26:35
BOOM Esports 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa23savage
BristlebackPalos
LycanJabz
BeastmasterBob
KunkkaSancity
Bounty HunterShanks
WarlockNARMAN
PangolierTino-
HoodwinkJhocam
Dazzlecml
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 62%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2