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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sancity · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
JaCkky · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
NARMAN · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 15 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 14 games
50%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 23 games
70%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 14 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
54%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Palos · 12 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 11 games
55%
Magnus
Magnus
Tino- · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 269 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
483 picks · 493 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
370 picks · 1004 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
329 picks · 378 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
310 picks · 147 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
308 picks · 521 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
304 picks · 498 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
304 picks · 148 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head6 – 5
Model total62% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:32
BOOM Esports 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa23savage
48% · 161 game47% · 333 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
47% · 320 games50% · 401 game
PuckBob
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingJabz
57% · 280 games48% · 169 games
UndyingTino-
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorNARMAN
48% · 162 games49% · 237 games
RingmasterShanks
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
52% · 298 games53% · 81 game
Crystal Maidencml
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed26:35
BOOM Esports 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa23savage
52% · 168 games54% · 262 games
BristlebackPalos
Bristleback
Lycan
LycanJabz
49% · 162 games50% · 301 game
BeastmasterBob
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaSancity
45% · 155 games50% · 89 games
Bounty HunterShanks
Bounty Hunter
Warlock
WarlockNARMAN
47% · 305 games46% · 288 games
PangolierTino-
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJhocam
52% · 214 games56% · 64 games
Dazzlecml
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 62%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2